What Is a Flare Score?
And What Can It Actually Tell You?

The Flare Catalogue: What You Are Working With

The Flare Dashboard tracks over 57,000 events across Ticketmaster and AXS at any given time. Of those, approximately 9,255 have a Flare Score - meaning the system was able to locate fan-by-location data for those artists in those specific markets. The remaining events are still visible in the dashboard and carry a Popularity Score, but did not have sufficient location data to generate a Flare Score.

The fact that only 16% of events have a score is not a bug - it is a feature. If Flare cannot find reliable fan-by-location data for a given artist and market, it does not manufacture a score. A missing score is information in itself: it means we could not confirm strong local listener presence. Use that absence as a caution signal, not a green light.

How the Flare Score Is Calculated

The Flare Score is built on a single core question: how many real, local, active fans are competing for each available ticket at this event?

The fan count comes from three real-time data sources that measure actual listener and search behavior in the specific geographic area around the venue - not nationally, not globally, but within 100 miles of where the show is happening.

The Popularity Score: A Separate Signal

The Popularity Score is a separate metric that runs from 0 to 100 and comes directly from Spotify. It measures an artist's current global popularity relative to all artists on the platform - not their local presence, not their ticket demand, but their overall cultural footprint at this moment.

A Popularity Score of 96 (the highest in our current catalogue) belongs to Morgan Wallen. A score of 0 is common for very local or niche artists with minimal Spotify presence. The median across all 57,000+ events in Flare is 0 - because the majority of events are local, niche, or tribute acts with little to no Spotify data.

Why the Get-In Price Is the Missing Piece

Here is the honest limitation of both metrics: neither the Flare Score nor the Popularity Score tells you whether reselling will actually be profitable. That requires knowing the get-in price on the secondary market - the cheapest available resale ticket - which determines whether there is enough margin between face value and what buyers will pay.

An event can score 500 on Flare with a Popularity Score of 85 and still be a poor resale opportunity if face value tickets are already priced at $300 and the secondary market get-in is $320. There is almost no margin. Conversely, an event with a moderate Flare Score of 80 and a $45 face value where the secondary get-in is $120 offers a 166% gross return before fees.

Where pricing data is available in Flare, you can see the minimum and maximum ticket price for primary inventory. Use this as a starting point - then compare to secondary market listings to estimate your potential margin before buying.

The Three-Signal Approach

The most useful way to think about Flare is as one input in a three-part evaluation, not a standalone buy signal. Here is how the three signals work together:

Real Events From the Flare Catalogue

Looking at the actual data across 57,000+ events, here is what the signal combinations look like in practice. These are real events in the current Flare catalogue:

What a Missing Score Means

If you see an event with no Flare Score, it means the system could not locate reliable fan-by-location data for that artist in that market. This happens most commonly with:

• Very large stadium and arena shows where the venue capacity is so high relative to any realistic local listener count that the metric becomes less meaningful
• Artists who are extremely popular offline but have limited streaming presence - older artists, regional stars, or artists whose fanbases skew toward radio listeners rather than Spotify users
• Niche, local, or tribute acts with minimal streaming data
• Brand-new artists who have not yet built up enough location-specific streaming history

A missing score is not a pass or a fail on its own. Morgan Wallen - the artist with the highest Popularity Score (96) in the entire current catalogue - has no Flare Score across most of his tour dates. That does not mean his shows are not worth researching. It means you have to rely on secondary market data and historical sell-out patterns more heavily, because the location-based demand signal is not available.

How to Use Flare in Your Weekly Research

The most efficient workflow is to use both scores as a filtering layer, not a buying trigger. Here is a practical approach:

1. Start with scored events above 75. These sit in the top 10% of all events in the system by demand-to-supply ratio. They have cleared a meaningful threshold. Use this as your shortlist.
2. Add Popularity Score context. A Flare Score of 200 with a Popularity of 40 reads differently than a Flare Score of 200 with a Popularity of 85. The latter has broader cultural momentum behind it. Both are worth researching - but the research is different.
3. Check secondary pricing before anything else. For every event on your shortlist, open StubHub or Vivid Seats and look at current listing prices for comparable sections. If secondary market pricing is already at or below face value, move on regardless of the scores.
4. Use pricing data in Flare where available. The Min Price field in the dashboard gives you primary face value. Compare this to secondary listings to estimate your gross margin before fees.
5. Cross-reference with the nightly #marketpredictions picks. Expert brokers in the TicketFlipping community have already done this evaluation for the most compelling events. Their picks are not just based on Flare data - they include secondary market research and historical sell-out knowledge that no single metric captures.